HSBC, which does not expect significant political change after the elections, has revised its inflation expectations for Turkey. According to news from Bloomberg HT, the bank, as noted by HSBC CEEMEA economist Melis Metiner on March 14, increased its inflation forecast for the end of 2024 from 47.9 percent to 49.4 percent. The inflation expectation for 2025 remained at 29 percent. In the latest inflation report of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the year-end expectation for 2024 was determined to be 36 percent. Regarding interest rate forecast, while HSBC kept its expectation for the policy rate in 2024 at 45 percent, it also highlighted the possibility of an increase. The bank stated that considering the inflation assumptions, room for rate cuts would only exist in the first quarter of 2025. HSBC anticipated that a soft landing of the economy will continue to be a priority and stated, „This means that imbalances will be corrected slowly. Further tightening will help cool the economy faster, but we still expect a more gradual approach.“
